Blackjack Average Hands Per Hour

• Blackjack Average Hands Per Hour Poker
• Average Number Of Blackjack Hands Per Hour
• Blackjack Average Hands Per Hour Blackjack
• Blackjack Average Hands Per Hour Zone Poker
• Blackjack Average Hands Per Hour Table
• Blackjack Average Hands Per Hour Video Poker

Apr 03, 2013 Hands per hour can be dealer dependent as some are faster and more dexterous than others. Other factors are number of players at the table, side bets, players' decision times etc. I regularly play over 200 hands per hour one on one. Wong did some studies on this subject using Atlantic City six deck games. Let’s assume you are dealt 100 hands per hour, so over the course of two hours you played 200 hands of blackjack. Getting a blackjack once every 21 hands means that you should theoretically have gotten about 10 blackjacks. Sometimes you’ll get more blackjacks in two hours of play, sometimes less, but on average you’ll get 10.

Blackjack Average Hands Per Hour Poker

Chapter 1

Win Rates

This book contains numerous win rates. Their purpose is to aid in understanding the importance of various rules options. This book assumes that decisions are made on the basis of expected value, also called expected win. Whether an action turns out to have been correct or incorrect on one isolated hand does not matter. What does matter is what the average outcome would be over thousands and thousands of such decisions.

A positive expected win rate means that you are expected to win in the long run, and a negative expected win rate means that you will lose in the long run. For example, when your expected win rate is -0.5%, you are expected to lose at the rate of 0.5%. Here is a question from a reader. I like it because the answer to it is a good example of what this book is all about.

Why should I not split 10-10 when the dealer shows 5?

I like the idea of starting two new hands with a single good card. I am likely to draw totals much better than the dealer will get when he starts with the worst of cards. This reader is correct in that starting with a 10 is likely to lead to a good hand. You will make money if you split 10-10 against the dealer’s 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9. You will make money splitting 10-10 against 10 or ace if you lose only one bet to a natural.

You will also make money if you do not split 10-10. You should split or not split depending on which alternative makes more money. With 10-10 against 5 you make about 25% per hand by splitting but you can make 67% by not splitting. Making 67% is more attractive than twice making 25%. Therefore, basic strategy says do not split 10-10 against 5.

Benchmark Rules

I have selected a benchmark, an arbitrary set of rules, playing conditions, and bets. Use of a different benchmark would result in different numbers. However, the relative importance of different rules variations would be approximately the same no matter what set of rules was used as the benchmark. The benchmark betting scheme is not the best way to bet.

Much better is to leave the table on negative counts. On positive counts, you must bet in a manner that does not attract unwanted attention to yourself. Simulating the base set of rules and betting scheme finds a win rate that is a benchmark for evaluating the cost or benefit of various deviations from the benchmark rules.

Benchmark Rules Six decks.

One-deck cut, meaning five decks are dealt out. Dealer stands on soft seventeen. Double down is allowed on any first two cards but not after splitting. Resplits are allowed to a total of four hands. Split aces receive one card each, and cannot be resplit. Insurance is offered, but no other side bets. No surrender. Naturals pay 3:2, and tie a natural by the dealer. The high-low counting system is used, with strategy numbers from -10 to +10. There is a total of two players at the table. The bet scheme is $100 at counts per deck of +4 or more, $75 at +3, $50 at +2, $25 at zero or +1, and $10 at all negative counts.

Simulation result for benchmark rules:

win rate $16, standard deviation $415. Benchmark Win Rate As noted above, the benchmark win rate is $16 per 100 hands, with a standard deviation of $415. In a casino you will be able to play 50 to 300 hands per hour, so 100 hands represents roughly an hour’s play. Throughout this book results are stated in dollars per hour, which really means dollars per 100 hands.

Average Number Of Blackjack Hands Per Hour

Sampling Error That $16 win rate is a simulation result, and thus is an estimate. Though it is an estimate for 600 million hands of blackjack, it still contains what statisticians call “sampling error.” That is, a different 600-million-hand simulation would result in almost but not quite the same number. The term used to describe the precision of an estimate is the standard error.

The standard error applicable to the $16 win rate is $0.20. The actual simulation result was $15.78, which was rounded because the pennies and dimes are not significant. So you should think of the $16 as meaning somewhere in the $15.38 to $16.18 range. It would be nice to have a smaller standard error of course, and the way to do that is to increase the sample size. That is the reason why the sample size was run up to 600 million hands — to reduce the standard error to a reasonable number.

Each of the win rates in this book has a standard error of less than $1. So if one rule is changed from the benchmark, and a simulation with the new rule yields a win rate of say $20 per hour, that rule increased the win rate by $4 per hour. That $4 can be thought of as the value per 100 hands to a card counter of that rule change. But it is not exactly $4 per 100 hands because both the $20 and the $16 are sample statistics with sampling error.

If you run your own simulation trying to duplicate these results you probably would get $4, but you could possibly get $3 or $5 as the value of the rule. And of course if you use a different bet scheme, a different counting system, make an occasional error, or play against a different number of decks or with a different number of players at the table, or with different penetration, the value to you might be different from $4 per hour.

Average Bet Size

The average bet size for the benchmark is $26.54. That is the average initial bet; it does not include additional amounts wagered on doubles, splits, and side bets such as insurance. That $26.54, plus or minus a penny or two, is the average bet size on all simulations reported in this book for six decks, penetration down to the last deck, and the high-low system.

Blackjack Average Hands Per Hour Blackjack

Benchmark Risk

The standard deviation for 100 hands for the benchmark is $415. That is, the win rate may be $16 but any given 100 hands typically has a result considerably less than or more than $16. In repeated samples of 100 hands, 2/3 of the samples have wins of $16 plus or minus $415. Risk varies with the rules. Some rule changes mean more risk, and some mean less risk. Being able to double down more often (such as after splitting pairs) means more risk, as represented by a higher standard deviation.

Restrictions on doubling down mean a lower win rate but that is partially offset by lower risk. Win Rates Reported Each simulation win rate in this book is reported in the form of win rate per 100 hands using the benchmark betting scheme, and the standard deviation applicable to 100 hands. The rest of the information pertaining to that simulation is the same as the benchmark as discussed above.

As an example, if one deck with penetration 26 cards is used instead of six decks, but everything else kept the same as the benchmark, the win rate is $48 and a standard deviation of $482. That means the simulation win rate averaged $48 per 100 hands, and the standard deviation describing the ups and downs in 100 hands was $482.

Effects on Win Rates

One Deck Two Decks Six Decks Raw Diff Raw Diff Raw Diff

Benchmark 48 19 16

Dlr hits soft 17 42 -6 13 -6 11 -5

Double after split 51 3 23 4 20 4

Double 10 & 11 only 38 -10 12 -7 10 -6

Double 9, 10, & 11 44 -4 16 -3 12 -4
Late surrender 54 6 23 4 21 5

Early surrender 77 29 42 23 39 23

Lose all to dlr BJ 42 -6 15 -4 11 -5

No insurance 41 -7 16 -3 14 -2

Blackjack Average Hands Per Hour Zone Poker

No resplits 47 -1 18 -1 15 -1

Over/under 13 78 30 31 12 32 16

Bustout 96 48 42 23 30 14

Plr BJ beats dlr BJ 59 11 28 9 26 10

Dealer’s 10 up + ace is ordinary 21 56 8 25 6 24 8 6-card win 51 3 22 3 18 2

Winning 5-card 21 wins double 50 2 21 2 17 1

5-card half win 63 15 33 14 30 14

Double on any number of cards, including after splits 61 13 28 9 26 10

42 cards not used (21 on single deck) 59 11 27 8 20 4

62 cards not used (31 on single deck) 33 -15 10 -9 13 -3

Hi-opt count 40 -8 13 -6 12 -4

Halves count 50 2 20 1 17 1

Blackjack Average Hands Per Hour Table

Basic strategy with high-low for bet variation 37 -11 14 -5 12 -4

Source:

Excerpt from 'Professional Blackjack', Author: Stanford Wong

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BETTING AT BLACKJACK

By Henry Tamburin

One of the most often asked question from blackjack players is 'how should I bet?' You've got several options and I'll discuss them in this article and offer my recommendation.

Flat bet

This means betting the same amount all the time. Most players don't like to bet this way because they figure if the dealer wins more hands then them they'll never win any money. Also players feel it's boring betting this way. They prefer the thrill of sometimes betting more in the hopes that when they do so, they will win the hand and make a nice profit.

Here are the facts on flat betting. If you bet say $5 on every hand in a standard multiple deck game the house will have an edge of 0.5% against the skilled basic strategy player. That means you will lose on average 0.5% of every wager you make. So if you bet $10 on every hand and average 80 hands per hour you will have made a total of $800 worth of bets. The casino expects to earn 0.5% of the $800 or $4.00. Of course the more likely result is that you'll win or lose much more than $4 after an hour of play. But on average you can expect over time to lose at the rate of $4 per hour.

Let's take an example of a player flat betting $10 on every hand. It's is a conservative betting strategy that leads to a relatively low theoretical loss rate. The fluctuation in this player's bankroll will also be low which means the likelihood he'll have a big winning or losing session is not great.

Progressive betting

This is where things get interesting. Progressive betting means varying your bets in some way from one hand to the next rather than always betting the same amount on every hand. There are all different types of betting progressions but they all have one common denominator. You either decrease or increase your next bet depending upon whether the hand you just played won or lose.

Win progressions encourage you to increase your bet size after a winning hand. For example you make a minimum bet of $10 and if you win, you raise your next stakes on next hand to $20.

There are all different kinds of win progressions. The most common is a 1-2-3-5 progression. This means you increase your bet by the above multiples after each winning hand but as soon as you experience a loss, you start the progression over with a 1 unit bet.

Proponents of win progressions will tell you that you'll win more money if you win 5 consecutive hands compared to the amount you lose if you lose 5 consecutive hands. Of course what they don't tell you is that you never know when that 5 consecutive winning hand streak will occur.

There are also betting progressions in which you increase your bet following a loss. These Martingale type betting progression are dangerous and you never consider using them

There is also hybrid betting progressions, which have you increase your bets following a win, but after two or three success wins you lock up some profit and gradually regress your bets. The creativity of progressive bettors is never ending.

First of all, betting progressions do not change the 0.5% house edge one iota. There has never been a correlation between the hand just won (or lost) and you chance of winning the next hand. In other words using the criteria of the result of one hand (W/L) to base how you bet on the next hand has no scientific validity. So betting progressions in the long run don't work in the sense that won't improve your long-term chances of winning.

But here's what betting progressions will do. First off they increase the fluctuation in your session bankroll compared to flat betting. This means you can win more using a betting progression compared to flat betting but you can also lose more. Secondly, betting progressions will increase the amount of money you wager per hour compared to flat betting. If a $10 bettor uses a 1-2-3-5 betting progression, his average bet will $20. Over an hour he will average $20 times 80 hands or $1600 worth of bets. The casinos expected win is 0.5% of $1600 or $8. In other words a $10 progressive bettor stands to lose twice as much per hour as a $10 flat bettor.

Here's a tip to save you some money in the long run if you insist on using a betting progression. Instead of starting your progression at $10, start at a lower amount (ie. $5). This will reduce your average bet to $10 per hour and cut you hourly theoretical loss rate in half.

But in the long run flat betting and betting progressions don't work in the sense they won't change the house edge against you and you will lose in the long run. So what betting system works? That my friends is as card counting.

With card counting you know when you have the edge based on the change in the composition of the decks and therefore you'll know when it's the right time to bet more. So unlike betting progressions that are based on whether you win or lose the previous hands, card counting is based on the mix of cards that were played on previous hands. If more small value cards were played in previous rounds, there are more big value cards left in the unplayed cards and the edge shifts from dealer to player. This would be the best time to bet more.

But I'm realist. Not a whole lot of average blackjack players have the time or mental concentration during play that is required to master one of the popular point count card counting systems. These are readily available in blackjack books. But even though millions of blackjack books have been sold since Ed Thorp's classic book, Beat The Dealer (circa 1962) first revealed card counting to the masses, the number of players who can successful win money in the long run at blackjack number in the hundreds and thousands.

So what's the answer to betting at blackjack for the average player? I asked Don Pronovost that same question about 2 years ago. Don is a software developer that markets blackjack training software (www.HandheldBlackjack.com). He spent the better part of 2 years and 36+ billion computer simulated hands looking for the solution to this dilemma. What he developed is nothing short of revolutionary - Speed Count.

Speed Count is unlike any conventional card counting system. It's much simpler to master and requires much less concentration when you play. And unlike progressive betting systems, Speed Count will give you a verifiable advantage over the casino. Frank SCoblete and I teach Speed Count in a weekend course. For more information visit www.goldentouchblackjack.com or call 1-866-WIN-BJ21.

Blackjack Average Hands Per Hour Video Poker

So now that you know the scoop on betting at blackjack, I wish you many aces and faces the next time you play.